­
­
Figure 2. State of Colorado Drought Monitor.
Figure 1. Western U.S. Drought Monitor.
Figure 3. Southern Ute Indian Reservation drought comparison.
Figure 4. CoCoRaHS rain gage measurements in La Plata County, CO from 5/14/26 – 7/2/26.
Figure 5. Current capacities of local reservoirs.
Figure 6. US seasonal drought outlook for 7/1/26 – 9/30/26.
Figure 7. Mid-June 2026 ENSO Forecasts.
Figure 8. US precipitation outlook through September 2026.
Photo Credit: Southern Ute Water Resources Division
Photo Credit: Southern Ute Water Resources Division
Photo Credit: Southern Ute Water Resources Division
Photo Credit: Southern Ute Water Resources Division
Photo Credit: Southern Ute Water Resources Division
Photo Credit: Southern Ute Water Resources Division
Photo Credit: Southern Ute Water Resources Division
Photo Credit: Southern Ute Water Resources Division
Thumbnail image of
Thumbnail image of
Thumbnail image of
Thumbnail image of
Thumbnail image of
Thumbnail image of
Thumbnail image of
Thumbnail image of
­
­

Current drought conditions and weather update

Friday - July 10, 2026 by Southern Ute Water Resources Division

The last Drought Update was May 14, 2026. With the dry Summer so far, the Water Resources Division (WRD) is providing an update to the community on current Drought Conditions and Drought/Weather Outlooks.

DROUGHT

A majority of the western U.S. is currently in drought ranging from None to Exceptional Drought (Figure 1). The entire state of Colorado has continued to be in drought conditions since the last Drought Update including the southwestern part of the state which has drought conditions ranging from Severe to Extreme Drought (Figure 2). The Southern Ute Indian Reservation currently has Severe to Extreme drought conditions and has a slightly increased area of Extreme drought conditions since the last Drought Update (Figure 3).

Figure 1. Western U.S. Drought Monitor.
Figure 2. State of Colorado Drought Monitor.
Figure 3. Southern Ute Indian Reservation drought comparison.

The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) rain gage in Ignacio has recorded 0.30 inches of rain since the last Drought Update (Figure 4). The WRD office rain gage measured 0.33 inches of rain since the last Drought Update as well. With the continued drought and warm, dry weather, reservoirs in the San Juan River Basin have decreased capacity. Vallecito Reservoir is currently at 69% full and Lemon Reservoir is currently at 60% full (Figure 5). For the Tribe’s irrigation season, the Pine River Indian Irrigation Season (PRIIP) still plans on having a full irrigation season with 100% supply going through September. The Florida irrigation season currently has an outlook of 75% supply going through July, but that could change if precipitation arrives.

Figure 5. Current capacities of local reservoirs.
Figure 4. CoCoRaHS rain gage measurements in La Plata County, CO from 5/14/26 – 7/2/26.DROUGHT/WEATHER OUTLOOKThe US Drought Outlook in Figure 6 shows drought conditions in western Colorado improving through September 30. The Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts for Mid-June show increasing chances of El Nino probability through the rest of the year (Figure 7). The La Nina forecast probability (blue bars) is not on the chart at all and the probability for El Nino is nearly 100% which is completely different from the past several years and could be promising.

Figure 6. US seasonal drought outlook for 7/1/26 – 9/30/26.

The Precipitation and Temperature outlooks for July through September 2026 (Figures 8 and 9) show southwest Colorado experiencing above average precipitation with above average temperatures. The Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks for August-October 2026 are showing the same which would be great.

Figure 7. Mid-June 2026 ENSO Forecasts.
Figure 8. US precipitation outlook through September 2026.

The WRD will continue monitoring drought conditions and update the community periodically. If you’d like more information, feel free to reach out to George Gavrielides, Water Resources Specialist, at 970-563-2932.

Tags: ,
To top