Southern Ute Water Resources Division
With the recent precipitation events, the Water Resources Division (WRD) decided to provide the community with the following update. Below is a summary of the latest precipitation events involving Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond and information on current drought conditions and weather outlooks.
From Friday, Oct. 10, through Tuesday, Oct. 14, our region received significant widespread precipitation from the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond. The WRD office rain gage received 3.77 inches of rain from 10/10-10/14. Certain localities got more rain than others, so the accumulated precipitation ranged from 1.38 inches (near Cortez) to 7.05 inches (south of Vallecito). All of our basins are currently above 150%, with many basins in the 200% and even 300% range. Although this precipitation was substantial and much needed after the below-average precipitation this summer, the magnitude and short duration of this precipitation caused streams and reservoirs to rise significantly, resulting in some flooding in certain areas such as Vallecito and Pagosa Springs.
There was a short break in precipitation between Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond, and it can be seen in the hydrograph as the dip in between the two peaks of discharge. Notable discharge peaks include Vallecito Creek (6540 cfs), San Juan in Pagosa (8160 cfs), San Juan near Carracas (12,600 cfs), and Animas below Durango Pumping Plant-DPP (6040 cfs).
Before our region received these precipitation events, our local reservoirs were very low. Although the hydrographs show discharge in our rivers declining, the inflows to our reservoirs are still greater than the outflows (dam releases & evaporation), so the reservoirs are still filling. Our reservoirs needed this storage increase going into winter.
The final data for this summary shows the increase in soil moisture content that these storms provided; from the Tribe’s NRCS Air & Water Scanning station near Oxford, Colo. The soil moisture has increased to 50-60% of normal up to 20 inches below the surface. This will help recharge aquifers going into winter and will help irrigators in the spring. If anyone has questions about this summary or the data used, please contact WRD at 970-563-2930. The next section will describe how these rains have influenced local drought conditions that have persisted all year.
DROUGHT
Our region has been in drought conditions the entire year with conditions progressively worsening since January. However, the past rain events helped reduce drought conditions. Drought conditions improved in our region within one week. Before the hurricane and tropical storm entered our region, we had a long, warm and dry summer which created extreme to severe drought conditions in Southwest Colorado. After the latest storms dropped a substantial amount of precipitation in Southwest Colorado, the current drought conditions are now moderate to abnormally dry. The rest of Colorado improved as well, so this rain brought much needed moisture to the entire state. Focusing on Southwest Colorado, it seems like the drought classification before the storms were improved by a single drought class. Extreme was reduced to severe; severe was reduced to moderate, etc. which shows how widespread the recent precipitation event was. However, drought conditions are still present, so more moisture later this fall and winter would benefit the entire region.
OUTLOOKS
NOAA precipitation and temperature forecasts for November-December-January show Southwest Colorado to be slightly warmer and dryer than normal.
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook shows much of Colorado having no drought, but parts of Southwest Colorado could still have drought conditions going into 2026.
To summarize, Southwest Colorado and the Southern Ute Indian Reservation received significant rainfall which provided a much-needed increase to local reservoir storage levels and soil moisture benefiting the entire region. However, the high flows caused some flooding, damage, and dangerous conditions in certain areas such as Vallecito and Pagosa Springs. The recent precipitation improved drought conditions across the state, and NOAA currently forecasts the beginning of winter 25/26 to be slightly warmer and dryer than normal for Southwest Colorado.
However, conditions can change quickly, so time will tell. The WRD will continue to monitor drought conditions and update the community periodically.
If you’d like more information regarding the recent storms, drought, outlooks, etc. please reach out to the WRD at 970-563-2930.