Drought update 

No drought! Although a lot of the country is currently experiencing drought conditions, the significant rain this summer and early fall we experienced in Southwest Colorado has prevented any drought conditions from arising in our area over the last few months. With winter around the corner, the Water Resources Division (WRD) would like to provide the community with a drought and winter forecast.  

According to the CoCoRaHS Ignacio 2.9N station, our area has received approximately 9.5 inches of precipitation since June 5, 2024.  Average annual precipitation in Ignacio is approximately 14 inches, so we’ve received about 68% of our average precipitation in less than six months. This summer’s rainfall has helped Southwest Colorado stay out of drought conditions for the last few months. Additionally, the Southern Ute Reservation has been out of drought conditions for a while as shown in Figure 1 below.  

The US Seasonal Drought Outlook for 10/17/2024 to 1/31/2025 shows some drought development in our area is likely. The precipitation and temperature outlooks for November 2024 to January 2025 also show our area experiencing below average precipitation and above average temperature. However, the promising news is the current ENSO probability chart (Figure 2) shows a high probability phase change beginning in January 2025.  

Our area may experience a slow start to winter over the next couple of months, but there is potential for a productive winter starting in January 2025. The WRD will keep track of drought conditions and winter forecasts and update the Tribe’s Drought Task Force and the community appropriately. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact George Gavrielides, Water Resources Specialist, at 970-563-2932.