Happy New Year to everyone. As part of the Southern Ute Indian Tribe’s Drought Management Plan, the Water Resources Division (WRD) periodically sends updates to the Tribe’s Drought Task Force. The last drought update was sent on March 6, 2023. However, 2023 was a good water year throughout the western United States and an even better year for Southwest Colorado, so there was not much to update on. Now that we’re in a new year, the WRD decided to provide a quick update for everyone. The update will start with a summary of 2023 and then describe current snowpack, drought conditions, and forecasts entering 2024.
In the spring of 2023, many Colorado reservoirs, including Vallecito and Lemon, filled and even had to release water for flood prevention prior to irrigation season. The Southern Ute Indian Tribe had a full supply of water on the Pine and Florida rivers allowing Tribal irrigators to have a full irrigation season. The entire State of Colorado was even 100% drought-free in July 2023.
Although drought conditions returned later in the year, the monsoons in late summer and fall supplemented the good runoff throughout 2023. Unfortunately, precipitation and snowpack were sparse throughout December 2023 leading to some drought conditions at the start of 2024. But there’s still time.
SNOWPACK
As of January 2, 2024, snowpack across the western United States is currently below average ranging from 40-90% of Normal Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). Southwest Colorado river basins currently have 62% of Normal SWE which is leading to some drought conditions.
Although it has snowed very little this winter, we are following a similar trend to water years 2022 and 2023. In the last two water years, it also snowed very little throughout December and it started to snow a lot right before New Years. We are expected to get some weather soon. In fact, the current seven-day forecast shows significant precipitation events for Southwest Colorado. So, hopefully snow is just delayed this year and a pattern change will create significant snowstorms very soon. This would help snowpack greatly, so we will see what happens and hope for a boost in snowpack with the upcoming series of storms.
DROUGHT
With the current lack of snowpack throughout the western United States, there are regional drought conditions. The southwest United States has moderate to extreme drought conditions and the northwest United States has abnormal to severe drought conditions.
Southwest Colorado currently has moderate to extreme drought conditions. We are currently in worse drought conditions compared to this time last year, but hopefully the upcoming storms will change drought conditions soon.
Fortunately, the drought forecast ending March 31, 2024, shows Southwest Colorado drought conditions improving and likely being removed over the next few months.
FORECASTS
The current forecasts are promising. The one-month and three-month precipitation forecasts show Colorado, especially Southwest Colorado, receiving above average precipitation.
Furthermore, the one-month and three-month temperature forecasts show Colorado, especially Southwest Colorado, receiving below average temperatures. In other words, the forecasts show cold and wet months ahead and that typically means snow. No need to worry now, let’s just hope the forecasts are correct and it snows a lot soon.
The WRD will keep track of snowpack, drought conditions, and forecasts and update the Task Force when major changes occur. Updates on runoff and irrigation season forecasts will be released later in the spring. Things can change and the WRD nor the Task Force need to take further actions regarding drought at this time.
If you’d like more information on snowpack, drought, and forecasting resources, feel free to reach out to George Gavrielides, Water Resources Specialist, at (970) 563-2932.