Prevalence is as high as 1 in 29 Coloradans in some regions
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) and the Colorado School of Public Health released an updated modeling report that shows infections and hospitalizations are continuing to increase across the state. The model estimates that currently one out of every 41 residents in the state is infected with SARS-CoV-2, by far the highest prevalence since the virus arrived in Colorado.
Over the last two weeks, many counties in Colorado moved to stricter levels on the state’s COVID-19 dial, and more are moving up over the weekend.
“Concern remains that we could exceed ICU capacity if people increase their contact with others during the next few weeks,” said Jonathan Samet, MD, MS, dean of the Colorado School of Public Health. “This is not the year to celebrate with extended family or friends – stick close to home and spend the holiday with those in your own household.”
Keeping hospitals at or below demand capacity requires continued substantial and rapid action. Coloradans should only interact with members of their own household, avoid gatherings, stay home when they are sick, wash their hands, physically distance, and wear a mask.
The Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) assembled the expert group that works with the state on modeling projections. The group includes modeling scientists at the ColoradoSPH and the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, as well as experts from the University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Denver, and Colorado State University.
All previous modeling reports are available on the Colorado School of Public Health’s COVID-19 website.
The Colorado modeling team began using a new “transmission control” indicator in mid-October to describe the collective impact of all policies and behaviors on the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Transmission control captures ALL behavioral and policy changes in response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic including mask wearing, physical distancing, improved ventilation, working from home, contact tracing (including both isolation and quarantine), moving activities outside, and any seasonal impact. This approach has the advantage of requiring fewer assumptions and increasing accuracy for the Colorado model. In technical terms, the transmission control parameter describes the percent decrease in effective contacts between infected and susceptible individuals compared to pre-pandemic behavior.
The state will continue to review data and model findings as the pandemic continues to inform policy decisions.
Continue to stay up to date by visiting: covid19.colorado.gov.